NEW CONCEPT OF HANDLING SINO-INDIAN CONFLICT

Will there be a better solution to benefit both the countries which will be disastrous to Parasitic countries like Pakistan.

This is one of the frequently discussed topic amongst intellectuals in the National capital over a cup of coffee. Specially after the Doklam log jam. For finding the answer we have to understand the present situation.

First. This is 2017 and not 1962. Both the countries have changed a lot. China is not simple Military power. It’s also economic power. India is not the same ill prepared country as in 1962. It’s a nuclear power and has stable government. 

Secondly, If China is in wise hands then it will never attack India as it is not economically viable. Today, China is a leading country in Electronics Manufacturing and Assembling being a economic giant. Today we are surrounded by Electronics our TV, Mobiles, Fridge, Laptops are being assembled in China this is because assembling is cheaper in China. Every leading manufacturer prefers manufacturing base in China to reduce cost and increase profit. 

If a war takes place, then sea routes from China to all leading developed countries such as Australia, Africa, New Zealand, South America will be affected because cheapest sea routes from China to these countries goes through Indian Ocean and India can block all Chinese shipments. If China won’t ship Mobiles and Electronics products to these countries then they will not be able to purchase and ultimately world MNCs such as Apple, Samsung, Nokia, Dell, HP, LG etc will lose market cap due to their inability to complete their respective manufacturing cycles. This will ultimately affect dollar and world economy.

It will cost China as well as India heavily because Civilian infrastructure and Army of both the countries will be damaged because this is not 1962 it is 2017 and India is also a Superpower now.

Instead of fighting the countries will have to eventually have to understand that in modern era the Zero Sum events such as wars i.e. of winner(+1) and looser (-1) is a very old concept. The new concept is non zero sum or a solution where its Win-Win situation. The Chinese will eventually realise that worlds nearly half population is in Sino-Indian region and resolution of the issues will help in both the countries in de-escalation on Zero sum solution and acceleration towards Non Zero sum solution. This will eventually help both the countries in overtaking the rest of the world in terms of economy resulting emergence of new economic centres for the world to look at.

This will be disastrous to countries like Pakistan who breed on fault lines between the two fighting neighbours. The Chinese will stop economic aid and technology transfer to critical war machinery as they would find Indians as better partners in their peaceful existence. Pakistani religious fundamental groups have already caused enough trouble to Chinese Authorities in the Western Provinces.

Chinese leadership, I guess today is in much better and educated hands who will take *Mutually Beneficial Non Zero Sum Solution* when compared to attrition based Zero sum solution.

Aggressive China Failed to Anticipate Strong Indian Response in Doklam: EU Vice President

An aggresive China did not anticipate India stepping in a strong manner to defend Bhutan`s territorial sovereignty during its unilateral move to build a motorable road from Dokala in Doklam area towards the Bhutan Army camp in Zornpelri, according to Ryszard Czarnecki, vice president of the European Parliament. In an article, Czarnecki has exposed Beijing`s lie of assuring the international community that its `peaceful rise` would not in any way threaten the established order, but instead promote a peaceful international environment. He clearly states that China has been following a foreign policy that squarely infringes on internationally accepted norms. Referring specifically to the tri-junction politico-military impasse in Doklam involving China, India and Bhutan, Czarnecki said, “On 16 Jun 17, China`s unilateral move to build a motorable road from Dokala in Doklam area towards the Bhutan Army camp in Zornpelri is an illustration of this policy. Bhutan`s objection to construction activities by China in the disputed Doklam area, conveyed through diplomatic channels, was possibly expected by China. However, what China may not have foreseen was India stepping in to defend Bhutan`s territorial sovereignty. The Chinese action in the Doklam plateau can be seen as a part of the country`s recent tendency to unilaterally change the ground situation in areas that are disputed. He concludes by saying that “China needs to realize that its unprecedented economic and military growth must go hand in hand with respect for international rules. Without that, it will be hard to believe in assurances of `win-win` and `shared destiny` by the Chinese leadership.”

View Point

By flaring up Doklam issue China expected to reap many benefits from its single masterstroke.

The change in status quo would have forced Bhutan to invite China to negotiating table and thus it would have forced Bhutan to commence Diplomatic relations with China. In reality it did not happen so and After issuing a Demarche Bhutan sought India’s help thus making it a trilateral issue which China never wanted.

China also wanted to test India’s resolve in coming to aid of Bhutan.

With Kashmir and Sikkim on boil China thought that it was the most opportune time to pressurize India into coming to its fold of OBOR.

Now the status quo is that Armies of both the nations are involved in a face off and intense diplomatic activities are on to diffuse the tension with no visible signs of abating. Indeed the Doklam issue will prove to be a gaffe in Chinese plans. An anticipated indian stance in definitely a blow to Chinese President  Xi Jinping.

AFTER DOKLAM INDIA MAY ENTER IN WATER WARS WITH CHINA

According to a report in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), China is working on an incredibly ambitious water diversion project involving the Brahmaputra, one of India’s largest rivers, which may become another point of tension between the two Asian neighbours.

Chinese engineers are testing techniques that could be used to build a 1,000-kilometre (km) tunnel—the world’s longest—to carry water from Tibet to Xinjiang, a barren region in northwest China. The project would divert water from the Yarlung Tsangpo River in southern Tibet, which turns into the Brahmaputra once it enters India, to the Taklamakan desert in Xinjiang. The feasibility of the proposed Tibet-Xinjiang project is being tested along a 600km tunnel in China’s Yunnan region.

2,880 km-long Brahmaputra originates in Tibet, where it is known as the Yarlung Tsangpo. Beijing’s plans for the Brahmaputra include two diffrent projects. The first involves the construction of number of hydro-electric power projects on the river and the other, more ambitious project, envisages the diversion of its waters to the arid North. This will have major impact on two lower riparian states: India and Bangladesh.

Though, the  construction of series of dams on Yarlung Tsangpo gives China the ability to control the water as per its desire but the most worrying part is the proposed northward rerouting of its water. This diversion would result in a significant drop in the river’s water level as it enters India. It will have a serious impact on agriculture and fishing in the downstream areas as the salinity of water will increase.

Experts dismiss these fears, drawing attention to the enormous technological and other challenges posed by the difficult terrain through which the Brahmaputra runs in Tibet – it flows here at an altitude of around 3500 meters above sea level. They argue that if the Chinese have to divert its waters to the north, they will have to haul the water up over an altitude of another thousand meters at least. Besides technological challenges, there are financial and environmental costs that stand in the way of implementing the water diversion plan. China feels that if it can construct Railway Line in Tibat, an unthinkable proposition few decades back ; it can achieve this feet also.

As Sino-Indian relations become strained over ongoing border disputes, growing water scarcity in China is set to aggravate tensions even further. Home to 20% of the world’s population, China contains just 7% of the world’s fresh water, putting its available water per capita at one of the lowest levels in the world for a country of its size. The demand for water is expected to grow by more than 10 percent annually in most Chinese cities, and more than five percent annually for its industries.

This shortage further becomes worse by widespread pollution, despite government efforts. More than 90 percent of China’s underground aquifers, supplying 70 percent of the country’s drinking water, are polluted. More than half of the population currently drinks water polluted with organic waste, and more than 75 percent of surface water is unsafe for drinking or fishing. At least 30 percent is unsuitable for agriculture or industry.

Implications for India

The tensions surrounding China’s diversion of water underscores a basic fundamental problem—that China, India, and Bangladesh lack a multilateral mechanism for managing differences and promoting cooperation on river issues. The concern is that in the absence of such a mechanism for the Brahmaputra, water security challenges such as drought and pollution could amplify political tensions between the three states and eventually perhaps even result in armed conflict, or what some have called “water wars.” This concern will only increase in size, as populations in these countries grow and factors such as climate change and development put added stress on scarce water resources.